Changes in climate indices for Serbia according to the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2 scenarios

Abstract

Changes in 7 climate indices related to temperature or precipitation in Serbia were estimated for the reference period 1961-1990 and for the future period 2071-2100, as derived from the results of the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM. In order to verify the appropriateness of the EBU-POM to simulate regional climate in the future, changes in the indices of intensive events were studied on the basis of the model data and daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from 17 meteorological stations in Serbia for the reference period. The results show an overall increase in the surface air temperature of about 2 and 4°C and a decrease in seasonal precipitation sums of about 13 and 6 mm for the A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. It is likely that the number of days with absolute maximum temperature >30°C (tropical days) will increase, while the total number of days with absolute minimum temperature <0°C (frost days) will decrease in the future. A shorter duration of the frost period and a longer duration of dry and vegetation periods over the Serbian region is expected. © Inter-Research 2011.