The influence of future climate change on wind energy potential in the Republic of Serbia

Abstract

In this paper, we analyzed the influence of future climate change on wind energy potential in the Republic of Serbia. We used climate projections from two regional climate models: the coupled regional climate model Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) and the Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B grid (NMMB). First, the daily wind speed at 10 m above ground that was simulated with both models was verified against observed data at 13 meteorological stations in the reference period, 1971–2000. Then, the wind speed at 10 m above ground was bias corrected and extrapolated to 70 m above ground, and the wind energy density was calculated at the same height. Next, the wind speed and wind density energy in a future period, 2071–2100, were calculated and compared with the reference period. Based on the analyzed results, the annual wind speed from the EBU-POM model underestimates the observed values at all stations, while the annual wind speed from NMMB model overestimates the observed values at all stations. In comparison with the reference period, the annual wind speed in the future will decrease in Serbia. These changes are small but statistically significant. On the other hand, analyses for different seasons revealed that seasonal changes in wind speed will be in the range of ± 5% relative to the reference period.