Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100

Abstract

Republic of Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate - fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, accrding to Köppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2°C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2°C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9°C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4°C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment.