The influence of the large-scale circulation patterns on temperature in Serbia

Abstract

In this study, the influence of the large-scale circulation patterns on temperature in Europe and Serbia is examined. Among the large-scale circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, less attention has been paid to the impact of the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern (EA/WR). The relationship between the EA/WR pattern and geopotential height at 500 hPa is investigated using reanalysis data from National Centres for Environmental Prediction – National Centre for Atmospheric Research. Temperature anomalies have been explored in relation to strong positive and negative phases of the EA/WR pattern for all months. Analyzing the correlation between the EA/WR index (EA/WRI) and geopotential height at 500 hPa, a centre with negative correlation has been found throughout the year over Russia, north of the Caspian Sea. Positive (negative) temperature anomalies prevailed over Eastern (Western) Europe for the strong negative EA/WR phase (EA/WRI < −1). The temperature anomalies associated with the strong positive phase of the EA/WR pattern (EA/WRI > 1) reflect below-average temperatures over Eastern Europe. In addition, we explored the combined effects of positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or East Atlantic (EA) pattern with the EA/WR pattern on temperature variations in Europe and Serbia. We find that the effect of the EA/WR pattern on temperature changes is dependent of the EA phase but not of the NAO phase over Serbia. When the EA/WRI is negative and EA pattern or NAO are in positive phase, the positive temperature anomalies prevailed over most of Europe, including Serbia. The highest values of temperature anomalies exist over Serbia for EA/WRI < −1 and EA index > 1. It is found that this case appears more frequently in the last 20 years, contributing to the warming in Europe and Serbia.