Analysis of precipitation series for Belgrade

Abstract

Precipitation is a very variable climatic element. It is highly variable, both spatially and temporally at different scales (interannual and intra-annual). The search for cyclicity in the climatic record can resolve some of the complexities of the atmospheric system. This paper takes the example of the Belgrade precipitation series (1889-2000) to illustrate how trend and spectral analysis can provide information on climate variability as expressed through this particular variable. The annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation series of the Belgrade-Observatory station were analyzed by means of the Mann-Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The power spectra were calculated using the autocorrelation spectral analysis, the maximum entropy spectral analysis and the multitaper method. The influence of large-scale phenomena such as the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the Belgrade precipitation series was investigated. © Springer-Verlag 2004.