Assessment of climate change risks to natural resources in the Republic of Serbia

Abstract

A temperature rise, extreme weather conditions and its consequences negatively impact the quality of life in towns and regions in Serbia and are challenges yet to be faced in the future. In order to prepare the country more adequately to altered climate conditions, as well as the successful implementation of adaptive measures, it is necessary to determine the vulnerability, as well as the assessment of the risks to certain sectors to climate change. Estimates show that since 2000 the Republic of Serbia has faced several significant extreme climate and weather events that have caused the loss of human life, considerable material consequences and degradation of the natural environment. The consequences have been various depending on the part of the country and the paper uses as an example the Raska Administrative District which covers an area of 3.918 km2 and has 309.258 residents. The aim of the paper is to assess the vulnerability and assessment of the risks of natural resources (agricultural and forest land) of the Raska Administrative District to climate change based on methodology 'FUTURE CITIES Adaptation Compass' [1], developed as part of the EU Project FUTURE CITIES. Using the results of 9 different models for the RCP 8.5 scenario, the paper concluded that agriculture and forests would be at a very high risk of heat waves, droughts and extreme precipitation, as well as under the medium-level risk of extreme cold. The research has a applicative character as it represents the starting point in the process of adapting to climate change. Also, the result of the paper has significant impact on planning spatial development because the defining of planned solutions must be in correlation with possibilities for adapting the sector to different climate conditions, and thus the realistic concept of spatial development.